Regression Results
Key to consistency problems
A: Driver elasticity has the
wrong sign.
B: Long run elasticity does
not converge.
C: Negative lag term.
D: Price elasticity has the
wrong sign.
E: Results not reported (for
the AEO2006 elasticities the two-year results are provided in the data, but not
reported).
F: Average sector price not
reported for the AEO2007.
G: Lagged endogenous variable
not included in the regression specification.
*: Revised
|
Residential Sector Price Elasticities |
||||||||||||
|
Fuel |
Electricity |
Distillate |
Natural Gas |
Delivered Energy |
||||||||
|
Horizon |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
|
Sim98 |
-.036 |
-.041 |
-.042 |
-.277A |
-.305 |
-.308 |
-.133 |
-.178 |
-.201 |
-.288* |
G |
G |
|
Sim99 |
-.187 |
-.313 |
-.573 |
-.221A |
-.338 |
-.467 |
-.075 |
-.132 |
-.324 |
-.306 |
-.378 |
-.4 |
|
AEO99 |
-.23 |
E |
-.31 |
-.28 |
E |
-.53 |
-.26 |
E |
-.43 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim00 |
-.118 |
-.134 |
-.136 |
-.108A |
-.192 |
-.49 |
-.032 |
-.046 |
-.056 |
-.241 |
-.32 |
-.358 |
|
Sim01 |
-.081 |
-.144 |
-.351 |
-.045 |
-.087 |
-.633 |
-.022 |
-.036 |
-.06 |
-.235 |
-.337 |
-.414 |
|
Sim02 |
-.02 |
-.039 |
-.308 |
-.061 |
-.116 |
-.601 |
-.061 |
-.104 |
-.202 |
-.066 |
-.122 |
-.439 |
|
Sim03 |
-.066 |
-.129 |
-1.449 |
-.135A |
-.226 |
-.422 |
-.132 |
-.249 |
-1.163 |
-.087 |
-.161 |
-.587 |
|
AEO03 |
-.20 |
-.29 |
-.49 |
-.15 |
-.27 |
-.60 |
-.236 |
-.426 |
-1.22 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim04 |
-.024 |
-.158 |
-.218 |
-.084A |
-.15 |
-.384 |
-.119 |
-.166 |
-.197 |
-.209 |
-.281 |
-.318 |
|
Sim05 |
-.221 |
-.246 |
-.249 |
-.046A |
-.089 |
-1.041 |
-.113 |
-.166 |
-.211 |
-.203 |
-.31 |
-.431 |
|
Sim06 |
-.03 |
-.048 |
-.08 |
-.056A |
-.102 |
-.33 |
-.071 |
-.108 |
-.149 |
-.101 |
-.147 |
-.183 |
|
Sim06:pooled |
-.044 |
-.076 |
-.16 |
-.061 |
-.11 |
-.35 |
-.072 |
-.12 |
-.211 |
E |
E |
E |
|
AEO06 |
-.07 |
E |
-.15 |
-.11 |
E |
-.43 |
-.09 |
E |
-.25 |
-.08 |
E |
-.17 |
|
RSTEM06 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
-.042 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim07 |
-.07 |
-.097 |
-.114 |
-.092A |
-.159 |
-.336 |
-.083 |
-.127 |
-.176 |
F |
F |
F |
|
Commercial Sector Price Elasticities |
||||||||||||
|
Fuel |
Electricity |
Distillate |
Natural Gas |
Delivered Energy |
||||||||
|
Horizon |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
|
Sim98 |
-.038 |
-.063 |
-.109 |
.002D |
A & B |
A&B |
-.069 |
A& B |
A&B |
-.08 |
-.098 |
-.103 |
|
Sim99 |
-.144 |
-.24 |
-.431 |
-.007 |
B |
B |
-.0278 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.211 |
-.307 |
-.389 |
|
AEO99 |
-.23 |
E |
-.24 |
-.47 |
E |
-.87 |
-.28 |
E |
-.34 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim00 |
-.094 |
-.153 |
-.245 |
-.667* |
G |
G |
-.001 |
-.002 |
-.004 |
-.129 |
-.203 |
-.299 |
|
Sim01 |
-.038 |
-.07 |
-.224 |
-.908* |
G |
G |
-.007 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.057 |
-.106 |
-.377 |
|
Sim02 |
-.055 |
-.089 |
-.144 |
-.048 |
-.093 |
-1.025 |
-.017 |
-.031 |
-.122 |
-.067 |
-.118 |
-.275 |
|
Sim03 |
-.042 |
-.081 |
-.775 |
-.05 |
-.099 |
-2.329 |
-.065 |
-.128 |
-2.71 |
-.086 |
-.147 |
-.293 |
|
AEO03 |
-.1 |
-.17 |
-.45 |
-.13 |
-.23 |
-.39 |
-.14 |
-.24 |
-.4 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim04 |
-.047 |
-.073 |
-.106 |
-.039 |
-.078 |
-3.532 |
-.0314 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.128 |
-.184 |
-.226 |
|
Sim05 |
-.086 |
-.123 |
-.149 |
-.036 |
-.073 |
-4.219 |
-.103 |
B |
B |
-.112 |
-.17 |
-.236 |
|
Sim06 |
-.034 |
-.063 |
-.209 |
-.015 |
-.029 |
-.924 |
-.12 |
-.189 |
-.283 |
-.085 |
-.145 |
-.281 |
|
Sim06:pooled |
-.046 |
-.083 |
-.34 |
-.055 |
-.1 |
-.33 |
-.09 |
-.154 |
-.32 |
E |
E |
E |
|
AEO06 |
-.09 |
E |
-.24 |
-.12 |
E |
-.17 |
-.13 |
E |
-.28 |
-.11 |
E |
-.24 |
|
RSTEM06 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
-.055 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim07 |
-.042 |
-.074 |
-.174 |
-.327* |
G |
G |
-.127 |
-.193 |
-.264 |
F |
F |
F |