Residential Sector: Natural Gas

 

Comparison of Individual Differences With Total Effect

 

Variable # 1

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source    Residential:    Natural Gas                  

 

Year           RSHGP07.0929a  RSLHH07.0926a  Sum of Diffs   Total Diff     Sum/Total     

 2010          -.104672       -.0159292      -.1206012      -.1203523       1.002068     

 2011          -.1792388      -.0247989      -.2040377      -.203063        1.0048       

 2012          -.2143378      -.033494       -.2478318      -.2465768       1.00509      

 2013          -.219552       -.04318        -.262732       -.2603788       1.009038     

 2014          -.22469        -.0530849      -.2777749      -.2744179       1.012233     

 2015          -.2293601      -.0624862      -.2918463      -.287972        1.013454     

 2016          -.2341251      -.0716672      -.3057923      -.3016281       1.013806     

 2017          -.2374101      -.0800018      -.3174119      -.3127789       1.014812     

 2018          -.2412877      -.0877819      -.3290696      -.324295        1.014723     

 2019          -.2454872      -.0951729      -.3406601      -.3356972       1.014784     

 2020          -.2497702      -.1018529      -.3516231      -.3468189       1.013852     

 2021          -.252707       -.107523       -.36023        -.3554668       1.0134       

 2022          -.2566099      -.1134858      -.3700957      -.3646836       1.01484      

 2023          -.2604012      -.1190963      -.3794975      -.3731513       1.017007     

 2024          -.264008       -.123785       -.387793       -.3812833       1.017073     

 2025          -.2665606      -.1281366      -.3946972      -.3878026       1.017779     

 2026          -.270112       -.1331348      -.4032468      -.3956671       1.019157     

 2027          -.2731333      -.1376882      -.4108215      -.4028363       1.019822     

 2028          -.2765064      -.1423492      -.4188556      -.4104552       1.020466     

 2029          -.2779708      -.1458907      -.4238615      -.415349        1.020495     

 2030          -.2768011      -.1463223      -.4231234      -.4181151       1.011978     

 

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

  Sector and Source    Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Key Indicators    Households (millions):      Total                     

 

# 3) Secular Trend Variable

    Number of years with first data input year = 1

 

# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Residential:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            10.46287             -.043361              -.085704              -27.409812           

Variable# 2            124.255               .02955                .693619               10.164691           

Variable# 3            18.5                 -.037402              -.130712              -9.266807            

Variable# 4            5.255754              .601247               .59695                28.587914           

Constant                                    -.392532             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               5.293591              .012189               .996493               2.50781812299845     

 

 

                                                                          Residential Sector Scenarios: Natural Gas

File

Natural Gas Price +/- 25%

Total Households +/- 10%

Base

B

B

RSHGP07

H

B

RSLHH07

B

L

RSNG107

H

L

RSLGP07

L

B

RSHHH07

B

H

RSNG207

H

H

RSNG307

L

L

RSNG407

L

H

“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case