Commercial Sector: Distillate Fuel
Comparison of Individual
Differences With Total Effect
Variable # 1
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion
Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Oil
Year CMHDP07.0922a CMLFS07.0922a Sum of Diffs Total Diff Sum/Total
2010 -.0120796 -.004919 -.0169986 -.0171972 .9884517
2011 -.0206008 -.0102657 -.0308665 -.030886 .9993687
2012 -.0240265 -.0155767 -.0396032 -.0396503 .9988121
2013 -.023214 -.0198499 -.0430639 -.0436562 .9864327
2014 -.0223896 -.0231644 -.045554 -.04644 .9809216
2015 -.0215044 -.0248871 -.0463915 -.0473106 .9805731
2016 -.0203206 -.025582 -.0459026 -.0470478 .9756587
2017 -.0195321 -.0261748 -.0457069 -.0467557 .9775685
2018 -.0187486 -.0265943 -.0453429 -.0463818 .9776011
2019 -.0179984 -.0269664 -.0449648 -.0459323 .9789364
2020 -.0173222 -.0272193 -.0445415 -.0455082 .9787577
2021 -.0166348 -.0275268 -.0441616 -.0451335 .978466
2022 -.0161003 -.027934 -.0440343 -.0449341 .979975
2023 -.0157113 -.0283943 -.0441056 -.0448947 .9824234
2024 -.0152515 -.0286671 -.0439186 -.0447151 .9821872
2025 -.0147838 -.0289315 -.0437153 -.0445008 .9823486
2026 -.0141927 -.0290876 -.0432803 -.0441921 .9793673
2027 -.0136721 -.0292434 -.0429155 -.0439292 .9769242
2028 -.0132187 -.0293941 -.0426128 -.0437052 .9750053
2029 -.0126947 -.029487 -.0421817 -.0434343 .9711611
2030 -.0123005 -.0297314 -.0420319 -.0432977 .9707652
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Oil
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Oil
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key
Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Key
Indicators and Consumption Total Floorspace (billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by
Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Oil
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 11.35217 -.005767 -.137586 -9.498165
Variable# 2 84.3015 .001728 .306142 8.034593
Variable# 3 .4675221 .547312 .537751 9.815336
Constant
.139749
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable .4758349 .006122 .972588 2.20902696780122
Commercial Sector Scenarios: Distillate
|
File |
Price +/- 25% |
Floorspace +/- 10% |
|
Base |
B |
B |
|
CMHDP07 |
H |
B |
|
CMLFS07 |
B |
L |
|
CMDS107 |
H |
L |
|
CMLDP07 |
L |
B |
|
CMHFS07 |
B |
H |
|
CMDS207 |
H |
H |
|
CMDS307 |
L |
L |
|
CMDS407 |
L |
H |
“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case