Commercial Sector: Natural Gas
Comparison of Individual Differences With
Total Effect
Variable # 1
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion
Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Natural Gas
Year CMHGP07.0922a CMLFS07.0922a Sum of Diffs Total Diff Sum/Total
2010 -.0955279 -.137691 -.2332189 -.229346 1.016887
2011 -.165282 -.1987491 -.3640311 -.3535321 1.029697
2012 -.1995568 -.2605009 -.4600577 -.4433858 1.037601
2013 -.2089622 -.3125322 -.5214944 -.4995172 1.043997
2014 -.2179909 -.3457849 -.5637758 -.537946 1.048016
2015 -.225353 -.3592432 -.5845962 -.5572751 1.049026
2016 -.231035 -.3671479 -.5981829 -.5709829 1.047637
2017 -.23805 -.3720348 -.6100848 -.5818169 1.048586
2018 -.244096 -.3768711 -.6209671 -.5922821 1.048431
2019 -.249383 -.382045 -.631428 -.602515 1.047987
2020 -.2538521 -.386616 -.6404681 -.6117382 1.046964
2021 -.2582409 -.3918269 -.6500678 -.621362 1.046198
2022 -.2627189 -.3975859 -.6603048 -.6307499 1.046857
2023 -.2679639 -.4030659 -.6710298 -.6402609 1.048057
2024 -.2721329 -.4075069 -.6796398 -.6485658 1.047912
2025 -.2771511 -.4133852 -.6905363 -.6585553 1.048562
2026 -.2826579 -.4196618 -.7023197 -.6694198 1.049147
2027 -.2872651 -.4251192 -.7123843 -.6792841 1.048728
2028 -.2920117 -.4306829 -.7226946 -.688983
1.048929
2029 -.296731 -.4357221 -.7324531 -.6987031 1.048304
2030 -.2963262 -.436172 -.7324982 -.703958 1.040543
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Natural Gas
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key
Indicators and Consumption (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Key
Indicators and Consumption Total Floorspace (billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by
Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 8.759386 -.074526 -.184832 -14.137072
Variable# 2 84.3015 .032519 .776192 14.997643
Variable# 3 3.464444 .288889 .283375 5.654997
Constant
.442419
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 3.531857 .04296 .984144 1.4062502197266
Commercial Sector Scenarios: Natural Gas
|
File |
Natural Gas Price +/- 25% |
Floorspace +/- 10% |
|
Base |
B |
B |
|
CMHGP07 |
H |
B |
|
CMLFS07 |
B |
L |
|
CMNG107 |
H |
L |
|
CMLGP07 |
L |
B |
|
CMHFS07 |
B |
H |
|
CMNG207 |
H |
H |
|
CMNG307 |
L |
L |
|
CMNG407 |
L |
H |
“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case