Industrial Sector: Electricity

 

Comparison of Individual Differences With Total Effect

 

Variable # 2

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source    Industrial 4/:    Electricity                  

 

               Low Gas Price  Hi Elec. Price  Low Val. Ship.

Year           INLGP07.0915a  INHEP07.0915a  INLMFD07.0913a Sum of Diffs   Total Diff     Sum/Total     

 2010          -.0371158      -.1027009      -.2257149      -.3655316      -.3590059       1.018177     

 2011          -.050374       -.1285291      -.2188661      -.3977692      -.3847761       1.033768     

 2012          -.0650918      -.155062       -.214648       -.4348018      -.413204        1.052269     

 2013          -.079731       -.1808572      -.2141252      -.4747134      -.4442492       1.068575     

 2014          -.0948122      -.2065091      -.21487        -.5161913      -.4770629       1.082019     

 2015          -.109951       -.23265        -.2164779      -.5590789      -.510181        1.095844     

 2016          -.1247239      -.258018       -.2171271      -.599869       -.5432391       1.104245     

 2017          -.140568       -.283695       -.2172079      -.6414709      -.5757351       1.114177     

 2018          -.1560299      -.3097248      -.2174969      -.6832516      -.6074049       1.12487      

 2019          -.172466       -.3368359      -.2189341      -.728236       -.641191        1.135755     

 2020          -.1898482      -.361876       -.2205181      -.7722423      -.6734731       1.146657     

 2021          -.2058849      -.3845809      -.220238       -.8107038      -.7027509       1.153615     

 2022          -.2244489      -.4085109      -.2213221      -.8542819      -.7347059       1.162754     

 2023          -.2434101      -.4338222      -.2216182      -.8988506      -.768487        1.169637     

 2024          -.2630839      -.4597049      -.221962       -.9447508      -.803319        1.176059     

 2025          -.284338       -.4890251      -.2241881      -.9975512      -.840991        1.186162     

 2026          -.3053279      -.5187249      -.225667       -1.04972       -.877327        1.196498     

 2027          -.328202       -.547677       -.2280481      -1.103927      -.915992        1.205171     

 2028          -.3515952      -.5766542      -.2296581      -1.157907      -.9543753       1.213262     

 2029          -.374146       -.6047351      -.229527       -1.208408      -.977289        1.23649      

 2030          -.4000752      -.636575       -.2329481      -1.269598      -1.00183        1.267279     

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

  Sector and Source    Industrial 4/:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Industrial 1/:    Natural Gas 2/              

 

# 2) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Industrial 1/:    Electricity                 

 

# 3) Table #6 Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption 

    Value of Shipments   (billion 2000 dollars):      Total                     

 

# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Industrial 4/:    Electricity                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            5.88671               .027393               .04344                5.611453            

Variable# 2            16.93049             -.022482              -.102536              -9.843876            

Variable# 3            6661.194              .000204               .366063               9.877603            

Variable# 4            3.68399               .447025               .443633               7.542882            

Constant                                     .925817             

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               3.71216               .062811               .936191               1.808400018084   

 

 

                                       Industrial Sector Scenarios

Filename

Electricity Price

+/- 25%

Natural Gas Price

+/-25%

Value of Shipments1

+/-10%

Base

B

B

B

INHEP07

H

B

B

INHGP07

B

H

B

INHMFD07

B

B

H

INLEP07

L

B

B

INLGP07

B

L

B

INLMFD07

B

B

L

INHALL07

H

H

H

INLALL07

L

L

L

INSCEN107

H

H

B

INSCEN207

H

H

L

INSCEN307

L

H

B

INSCEN407

L

H

L

INSCEN507

L

H

H

INSCEN607

H

L

B

INSCEN707

H

L

L

INSCEN807

H

L

H

INSCEN907

L

L

B

INSCENX07

L

L

H

1Total manufacturing and nonmanufacturing reported in ftab Table #6 .

“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case