Industrial Sector: Electricity
Comparison of
Individual Differences With Total Effect
Variable # 2
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Industrial 4/: Electricity
Low Gas Price Hi Elec. Price Low Val. Ship.
Year
INLGP07.0915a
INHEP07.0915a
INLMFD07.0913a Sum of Diffs Total Diff Sum/Total
2010
-.0371158 -.1027009 -.2257149 -.3655316 -.3590059 1.018177
2011
-.050374 -.1285291 -.2188661 -.3977692 -.3847761 1.033768
2012
-.0650918 -.155062 -.214648 -.4348018 -.413204 1.052269
2013
-.079731 -.1808572 -.2141252 -.4747134 -.4442492 1.068575
2014
-.0948122 -.2065091 -.21487 -.5161913 -.4770629 1.082019
2015
-.109951 -.23265 -.2164779 -.5590789 -.510181 1.095844
2016
-.1247239 -.258018 -.2171271 -.599869 -.5432391 1.104245
2017
-.140568 -.283695 -.2172079 -.6414709 -.5757351 1.114177
2018
-.1560299 -.3097248 -.2174969 -.6832516 -.6074049 1.12487
2019
-.172466 -.3368359 -.2189341 -.728236 -.641191 1.135755
2020
-.1898482 -.361876 -.2205181 -.7722423 -.6734731 1.146657
2021 -.2058849 -.3845809 -.220238 -.8107038 -.7027509 1.153615
2022
-.2244489 -.4085109 -.2213221 -.8542819 -.7347059 1.162754
2023
-.2434101 -.4338222 -.2216182 -.8988506 -.768487 1.169637
2024
-.2630839 -.4597049 -.221962 -.9447508 -.803319 1.176059
2025
-.284338 -.4890251 -.2241881 -.9975512 -.840991 1.186162
2026
-.3053279 -.5187249 -.225667 -1.04972 -.877327 1.196498
2027
-.328202 -.547677 -.2280481 -1.103927 -.915992 1.205171
2028
-.3515952 -.5766542 -.2296581 -1.157907 -.9543753 1.213262
2029
-.374146 -.6047351 -.229527 -1.208408 -.977289 1.23649
2030
-.4000752 -.636575 -.2329481 -1.269598
-1.00183 1.267279
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Industrial
4/: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Industrial
1/: Natural Gas 2/
# 2) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Industrial
1/: Electricity
# 3) Table #6 Industrial Sector Key
Indicators and Consumption
Value of Shipments (billion 2000
dollars): Total
# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by
Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Industrial
4/: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 5.88671 .027393 .04344 5.611453
Variable# 2 16.93049 -.022482 -.102536 -9.843876
Variable# 3 6661.194 .000204 .366063 9.877603
Variable# 4 3.68399 .447025 .443633 7.542882
Constant .925817
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 3.71216 .062811 .936191 1.808400018084
Industrial
Sector Scenarios
|
Filename |
Electricity Price +/- 25% |
Natural Gas Price +/-25% |
Value of Shipments1 +/-10% |
|
Base |
B |
B |
B |
|
INHEP07 |
H |
B |
B |
|
INHGP07 |
B |
H |
B |
|
INHMFD07 |
B |
B |
H |
|
INLEP07 |
L |
B |
B |
|
INLGP07 |
B |
L |
B |
|
INLMFD07 |
B |
B |
L |
|
INHALL07 |
H |
H |
H |
|
INLALL07 |
L |
L |
L |
|
INSCEN107 |
H |
H |
B |
|
INSCEN207 |
H |
H |
L |
|
INSCEN307 |
L |
H |
B |
|
INSCEN407 |
L |
H |
L |
|
INSCEN507 |
L |
H |
H |
|
INSCEN607 |
H |
L |
B |
|
INSCEN707
|
H |
L |
L |
|
INSCEN807 |
H |
L |
H |
|
INSCEN907 |
L |
L |
B |
|
INSCENX07 |
L |
L |
H |
1Total
manufacturing and nonmanufacturing reported in ftab
Table #6 .
“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case