Industrial Sector: Natural Gas

 

Comparison of Individual Differences With Total Effect

 

Variable # 1

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Sector and Source    Industrial 4/:    Natural Gas                  

 

Year           INHGP07.0915a  INLEP07.0915a  INLMFD07.0913a Sum of Diffs   Total Diff     Sum/Total     

 2010          -.2043819      -.050941       -.5633612      -.8186841      -.7564602       1.082257     

 2011          -.2353382      -.076129       -.546505       -.8579721      -.7643151       1.122537     

 2012          -.2579117      -.093267       -.5256701      -.8768488      -.7682939       1.141293     

 2013          -.2918172      -.1235032      -.5313849      -.9467053      -.8003821       1.182817     

 2014          -.3071871      -.135633       -.521791       -.9646111      -.8152199       1.183253     

 2015          -.3153772      -.1419439      -.511816       -.9691371      -.8295102       1.168324     

 2016          -.3595753      -.1842833      -.5355749      -1.079433      -.8791742       1.227781     

 2017          -.3819618      -.2054968      -.5362458      -1.123704      -.9046307       1.242169     

 2018          -.4041934      -.228724       -.5412941      -1.174212      -.936975        1.253194     

 2019          -.4221878      -.2643638      -.5610151      -1.247567      -.968153        1.288605     

 2020          -.429893       -.2767591      -.554378       -1.26103       -.9870849       1.277529     

 2021          -.4842529      -.3287001      -.5881119      -1.401065      -1.055383       1.327541     

 2022          -.5158167      -.3636799      -.6029229      -1.482419      -1.097319       1.350947     

 2023          -.5524731      -.3969741      -.6147399      -1.564187      -1.14174        1.370003     

 2024          -.5807614      -.4223251      -.6201906      -1.623277      -1.179133       1.37667      

 2025          -.6225567      -.4627085      -.6398382      -1.725103      -1.231837       1.400431     

 2026          -.6584206      -.4947586      -.6523519      -1.805531      -1.279492       1.411131     

 2027          -.6919122      -.5246162      -.6613865      -1.877915      -1.322736       1.41972      

 2028          -.7381048      -.5579367      -.6729774      -1.969019      -1.376885       1.430053     

 2029          -.78722        -.5940599      -.6882334      -2.069513      -1.434548       1.442624     

 2030          -.8131294      -.6154242      -.6886168      -2.11717       -1.471696       1.438592     

 

 

Endogenous Variable:

Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

  Sector and Source    Industrial 4/:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous Variables:

# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Industrial 1/:    Natural Gas 2/              

 

# 2) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Industrial 1/:    Electricity                 

 

# 3) Table #6 Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption 

    Value of Shipments   (billion 2000 dollars):      Total                     

 

# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

    Sector and Source    Industrial 4/:    Natural Gas                 

 

Exogenous

Variable              Mean                  Coefficient           Elasticity            t-statistic          

Variable# 1            5.88671              -.130783              -.097041              -7.68417             

Variable# 2            16.93049              .030837               .065807               6.44111             

Variable# 3            6661.194              .000482               .404697               8.494977             

Variable# 4            7.854556              .32526                .32202                4.2469              

Constant                                     2.415911            

 

Endogenous            Mean                  SER                   R-sq                  LR-Multiplier        

Variable               7.933583              .169992               .891429               1.48205234608886    

 

 

 

 

                                                              Industrial Sector Scenarios

Filename

Electricity Price

+/- 25%

Natural Gas Price

+/-25%

Value of Shipments1

+/-10%

Base

B

B

B

INHEP07

H

B

B

INHGP07

B

H

B

INHMFD07

B

B

H

INLEP07

L

B

B

INLGP07

B

L

B

INLMFD07

B

B

L

INHALL07

H

H

H

INLALL07

L

L

L

INSCEN107

H

H

B

INSCEN207

H

H

L

INSCEN307

L

H

B

INSCEN407

L

H

L

INSCEN507

L

H

H

INSCEN607

H

L

B

INSCEN707

H

L

L

INSCEN807

H

L

H

INSCEN907

L

L

B

INSCENX07

L

L

H

1Total manufacturing and nonmanufacturing reported in ftab Table #6 .

“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case