Transportation Sector: Motor
Gasoline
Comparison of
Individual Differences With Total Effect
Variable # 1
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source Transportation: Motor Gasoline 2/
Year
TRLMG07.0820a
HPOP07.0819a
HYD07.0813a Sum of Diffs Total
Diff Sum/Total
2010
.2271385 1.442228 .132349 1.801716 1.933449 .9318663
2011
.41469 1.30279 .2639103 1.98139 2.17433 .9112647
2012
.5705395 1.199709 .3703785 2.140627 2.380508 .899231
2013
.70714 1.125681 .4605503 2.293371 2.564831 .8941608
2014
.8169098 1.0637 .5226593 2.403269 2.721291 .8831357
2015
.9073296 1.01783 .5741882 2.499348 2.855169 .8753763
2016
1.0033 .9834709 .6159515 2.602722 2.994051 .8692979
2017
1.081051 .9580116 .6491814 2.688244 3.113331 .8634623
2018
1.164928 .9402485 .6772194 2.782396 3.238729 .8591012
2019
1.251881 .928709 .7037201 2.88431 3.365049 .8571374
2020
1.3323 .9210987 .7254791 2.978878 3.485609 .8546219
2021
1.417791 .9186802 .7460499 3.082521 3.610741 .8537089
2022
1.508541 .9200706 .765461 3.194073 3.739191 .8542149
2023
1.606319 .9226303 .7826004 3.31155 3.87693 .8541681
2024
1.68791 .9291496 .79986 3.41692 3.99556 .8551793
2025
1.781889 .9362907 .8151302 3.53331 4.12619 .8563129
2026
1.86688 .94277 .8274002 3.637051 4.248791 .8560202
2027
1.95509 .9480801 .8374596 3.740629 4.374229 .8551516
2028 2.042551 .9550304 .8477497 3.845331 4.497421 .855008
2029
2.13899 .9644604 .8600101 3.963461 4.631271 .8558041
2030
2.228851 .973671 .8705006 4.073023 4.756611 .8562868
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Transportation: Motor Gasoline
2/
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and
Source (2005 dollars per million Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Transportation: Motor Gasoline
5/
# 2) Table #18 Macroeconomic Indicators
(billion 2000 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)
Population and Employment (milli: Population, aged 16 and over
# 3) Table #18 Macroeconomic Indicators
(billion 2000 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators for Energy Demand:
Real Disposable Personal Income
# 4) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by
Sector and Source (quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)
Sector and Source
Transportation: Motor Gasoline
2/
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 16.76699 -.123865 -.116274 -12.744683
Variable# 2 249.5311 .040015 .55902 15.227582
Variable# 3 10303.2 .000338 .19497 10.458191
Variable# 4 17.65437 .216496 .213984 4.03681
Constant
2.648876
Endogenous Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 17.8616 .273755 .948529 1.27631767036288
Motor Gasoline Scenarios
|
File |
Price +/- 25% |
Population +/- 10% |
Real Disposable Income +/- 10% |
|
Base |
B |
B |
B |
|
TRHMG07 |
H |
B |
B |
|
HPOP07 |
B |
H |
B |
|
HYD07 |
B |
B |
H |
|
TRHMGAL07 |
H |
H |
H |
|
TRLMG07 |
L |
B |
B |
|
LPOP07 |
B |
L |
B |
|
LYD07 |
B |
B |
L |
|
TRLMGAL07 |
L |
L |
L |
|
TRMG107 |
H |
L |
B |
|
TRMG207 |
L |
L |
B |
|
TRMG307 |
L |
H |
B |
|
TRMG407 |
H |
H |
B |
|
TRMG507 |
H |
B |
L |
|
TRMG607 |
L |
B |
L |
|
TRMG707 |
L |
B |
H |
|
TRMG807 |
H |
B |
H |
|
TRMG907 |
B |
H |
L |
|
TRMG1007 |
B |
L |
L |
|
TRMG1107 |
B |
L |
H |
|
TRMG1207 |
B |
H |
H |
“H” = high variation, “L” = low variation, “B” = AEO2007 Base Case