Please note that the ideas
reported on below are in the process of development and subject to change. The
evaluation methodology is under development. Comments are welcome.
Please note that the ideas
reported on below are in the process of development and subject to change. The
evaluation methodology is under development. Comments are welcome.
Send comments to George Lady: mailto:gmlady@ix.netcom.com
NEMS Forecast Evaluation Methodology
Disclaimer: The papers below are working documents prepared as a job of work for the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. This topic will be discussed at EIA's spring 2007 meeting with the Committee to be held April 19 and 20, 2007.
3/23/07: Click here to see a memo (on-screen) that reports on the derivation of impact measures for NEMS projections. The projections selected were residential sector demand for delivered energy, electricity, and natural gas; and, commercial sector demand for delivered energy and electricity. The projection year evaluated was 2005. The versions of NEMS considered were the AEO1998-AEO2004 versions. Click here to download the memo as a WORD file.
3/12/07: Click here to see a memo (on-screen) that reports on an effort to revise the regression specifications reported on in the 2/25/07 memo below that were not consistent. Eighteen regressions had onsistency problems of which four could be solved by dropping the lagged endogenous variable. In two of these four, the resulting price elasticity seemed high. Click here to download a WORD version of the memo.
2/25/07: Click here to see a version (on-screen) of a preliminary effort to estimate price elasticities of demand for selected fuels for the residential and commercial sectors. Results are presented for the AEO1998-2007 (inclusive) versions of NEMS. Also presented are selected EIA estimates of the same elasticities. Click here to download the WORD version of the file.
Click here to see a version (on-screen) of the proposed methodology as of 1/22/07 with examples using weather elasticities derived from specialized AEO2007 version NEMS solutions and regression results for the 1998-2000 AEO versions of NEMS, all for residential and commercial sector energy consumption. Click here to get a WORD version of the methodology.
Click here to see a summary (as of 12/19/06) of the status of data reported for 1995-2005 in the AEO2007 NEMS ran files as related to the actual historical values of the variables. Please send additions, corrections, or other comments to George Lady per the email address above.
Click here to see an on-screen version of the proposed methodology current to 11/27/06.
Click here to get the 11/27/06 version of the proposed methodology as a WORD file.
Click here to get a PDF version of a recent journal article on EIA's forecast evaluation methodology.
Below is the copy of the proposed methodology presented to the ASA.
This is a working document prepared as a job of work (DE-AP01-06EI38129.A000) on behalf of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in order to solicit advice and comment on statistical matters from the American Statistical Association Committee on Energy Statistics. The topics presented here will be discussed at EIA's fall 2006, meeting with the Committee to be held October 5 and 6, 2006.
Click here to see the full report on-screen.
Click here to download a copy of the report as a WORD file.