Working Memorandum
Subject: NEMS Price Elasticities of Demand For Residential and Commercial Energy Use
From: George Lady
Date:
1. Background. This memo reports on work in process to assess the differences between NEMS forecast values and the eventual historical values of the projected series. The point of the assessment is to identify the important reasons for the differences found. The underlying method proposed is reported on in Methodology_1_22_07 available on the website established in support of the project.
http://optima-com.com/NEM_Evaluation/Evaluation_Method.htm
The results presented here are a first effort to estimate the price elasticities of demand for the consumption of electricity, distillate, natural gas, and delivered energy in the residential and commercial sectors. The results presented are initial and in some cases problematical. A considerable portion of the effort reported on here was devoted to assembling the associated data and automating the analysis process. As reported below, although the majority of the results are entirely consistent with the “theoretical” expectations for the estimated demand relationships, there nevertheless remain issues that, presumably, will be successfully addressed through a reconsideration of some of the specifications reported on here.
2. Sources. Price elasticities were estimated, based upon the AEO1998-AEO2007 solution series for the base case and high/low world oil price cases. The choice of these cases reflects the issue of “identification” of demand, versus supply, relationships within NEMS. In the tables below, results based upon these solutions are labeled “SIM##,” where “##” indicates the AEO year.
In addition, results based upon the AEO1999 and AEO2003 NEMS solutions are also provided based upon “Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models,” by Seven H. Wade (of OIAF). The AEO2003 results included measures for one-year, two-year, and long run elasticities. This format was followed for the SIM## results cited above. Additionally, over seventy especially constructed NEMS solutions were run for the AEO2006 version of NEMS (the runs were provided for project use by Steven Wade). These solutions were designed to identify via comparative statics the effects of isolated price increases for a number of fuels. The strategy for each fuel was to configure the price series, ceteris paribus, with increases of 10%, 25%, 50%, and 100%. Results were presented for the first year of price increase (2010), i.e., one-year and the last year (2030), i.e., long run. All of these results are identified in the table below by “AEO##,” where “##” indicates the AEO year.
For the three fuels reported on here, the AEO comparative statics runs were pooled with the AEO2006 base case and high/low world oil price cases. These reports are reported on below as “SIM06:pooled.”
A small number of the
elasticities presented here were also estimated for the Regional Short Term
Energy Model as reported in Reduced
Form Energy Model Elasticities from EIA’s Regional Energy Model (RSTEM)
, by Dave Costello released by EIA on
3. Specification. The specification for the ten versions of the AEO, plus the pooled data for the AEO2006 were very austere. For each regression the specification used was:
Qt = a + b(Pricet) + c(Drivert) + dQt-1.
The driver for the residential sector is the total number of households and for the commercial sector total commercial floorspace.
For this specification, the one-year elasticity was computed as: E_1 = b(P/Q), where P and Q were the averages of price and quantity.
The two-year elasticity was computed as E_2 = (1 + d)E_1 and the long run elasticity as E_LR = E_1/(1-d).
The two-year and long run values reflect the feed-forward of the effect of a given year price change through the lagged endogenous variable.
The outcome of the estimation may be termed “consistent” if: b < 0, c > 0, and 0 < d < 1. In the eighty-eight regression results, sixty-eight were consistent in this way, sixteen were not, i.e., indicated as “issues: in the table below, and four could not be estimated due to lack of data, e.g., there are no average prices for sectoral delivered energy consumption reported for the AEO2007. For the inconsistent results, the specification used will be reconsidered in an effort to derive a consistent functional expression of the associated energy demand. A summary of the regression outcomes is provided in Table 1 below. Note that there are eleven total regressions for each sector/fuel combination. The elasticities are reported in Tables 2 and 3 below. The detailed regression results are then presented in an appendix.
Table 1: Consistency of Regression Results
|
Fuel: Sector: |
Electricity |
Distillate Fuel |
Natural Gas |
Delivered Energy |
|
Residential |
Consistent = 11 |
Consistent = 5 Issues = 6 |
Consistent = 11 |
Consistent = 8 Issue = 1 N/A = 2 |
|
Commercial |
Consistent = 11 |
Consistent = 6 Issues = 5 |
Consistent = 7 Issues = 4 |
Consistent = 9 N/A = 2 |
In the elasticity tables below, the following explanatory notes are indicated for each value, as appropriate.:
A: Driver elasticity has the wrong sign.
B: Long run elasticity does not converge.
C: Negative lag term.
D: Price elasticity has the wrong sign.
E: Results not reported (for the AEO2006 elasticities the two-year results are provided in the data, but not reported).
F: Average sector price not reported for the AEO2007.
|
Table 2: Residential Sector |
||||||||||||
|
Fuel |
Electricity |
Distillate |
Natural Gas |
Delivered Energy |
||||||||
|
Horizon |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
|
Sim98 |
-.036 |
-.041 |
-.042 |
-.277A |
-.305 |
-.308 |
-.133 |
-.178 |
-.201 |
-.3C |
-.288 |
-.288 |
|
Sim99 |
-.187 |
-.313 |
-.573 |
-.221A |
-.338 |
-.467 |
-.075 |
-.132 |
-.324 |
-.306 |
-.378 |
-.4 |
|
AEO99 |
-.23 |
E |
-.31 |
-.28 |
E |
-.53 |
-.26 |
E |
-.43 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim00 |
-.118 |
-.134 |
-.136 |
-.108A |
-.192 |
-.49 |
-.032 |
-.046 |
-.056 |
-.241 |
-.32 |
-.358 |
|
Sim01 |
-.081 |
-.144 |
-.351 |
-.045 |
-.087 |
-.633 |
-.022 |
-.036 |
-.06 |
-.235 |
-.337 |
-.414 |
|
Sim02 |
-.02 |
-.039 |
-.308 |
-.061 |
-.116 |
-.601 |
-.061 |
-.104 |
-.202 |
-.066 |
-.122 |
-.439 |
|
Sim03 |
-.066 |
-.129 |
-1.449 |
-.135A |
-.226 |
-.422 |
-.132 |
-.249 |
-1.163 |
-.087 |
-.161 |
-.587 |
|
AEO03 |
-.20 |
-.29 |
-.49 |
-.15 |
-.27 |
-.60 |
-.236 |
-.426 |
-1.22 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim04 |
-.024 |
-.158 |
-.218 |
-.084A |
-.15 |
-.384 |
-.119 |
-.166 |
-.197 |
-.209 |
-.281 |
-.318 |
|
Sim05 |
-.221 |
-.246 |
-.249 |
-.046A |
-.089 |
-1.041 |
-.113 |
-.166 |
-.211 |
-.203 |
-.31 |
-.431 |
|
Sim06 |
-.03 |
-.048 |
-.08 |
-.056A |
-.102 |
-.33 |
-.071 |
-.108 |
-.149 |
-.101 |
-.147 |
-.183 |
|
Sim06:pooled |
-.044 |
-.076 |
-.16 |
-.061 |
-.11 |
-.35 |
-.072 |
-.12 |
-.211 |
E |
E |
E |
|
AEO06 |
-.07 |
E |
-.15 |
-.11 |
E |
-.43 |
-.09 |
E |
-.25 |
-.08 |
E |
-.17 |
|
RSTEM06 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
-.042 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim07 |
-.07 |
-.097 |
-.114 |
-.092A |
-.159 |
-.336 |
-.083 |
-.127 |
-.176 |
F |
F |
F |
|
Table 3: Commercial Sector |
||||||||||||
|
Fuel |
Electricity |
Distillate |
Natural Gas |
Delivered Energy |
||||||||
|
Horizon |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
1 year |
2 year |
Long Run |
|
Sim98 |
-.038 |
-.063 |
-.109 |
.002D |
A & B |
A&B |
-.069 |
A& B |
A&B |
-.08 |
-.098 |
-.103 |
|
Sim99 |
-.144 |
-.24 |
-.431 |
-.007 |
B |
B |
-.0278 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.211 |
-.307 |
-.389 |
|
AEO99 |
-.23 |
E |
-.24 |
-.47 |
E |
-.87 |
-.28 |
E |
-.34 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim00 |
-.094 |
-.153 |
-.245 |
-.037A |
-.074 |
-4.111 |
-.001 |
-.002 |
-.004 |
-.129 |
-.203 |
-.299 |
|
Sim01 |
-.038 |
-.07 |
-.224 |
-.027 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.007 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.057 |
-.106 |
-.377 |
|
Sim02 |
-.055 |
-.089 |
-.144 |
-.048 |
-.093 |
-1.025 |
-.017 |
-.031 |
-.122 |
-.067 |
-.118 |
-.275 |
|
Sim03 |
-.042 |
-.081 |
-.775 |
-.05 |
-.099 |
-2.329 |
-.065 |
-.128 |
-2.71 |
-.086 |
-.147 |
-.293 |
|
AEO03 |
-.1 |
-.17 |
-.45 |
-.13 |
-.23 |
-.39 |
-.14 |
-.24 |
-.4 |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim04 |
-.047 |
-.073 |
-.106 |
-.039 |
-.078 |
-3.532 |
-.0314 |
A&B |
A&B |
-.128 |
-.184 |
-.226 |
|
Sim05 |
-.086 |
-.123 |
-.149 |
-.036 |
-.073 |
-4.219 |
-.103 |
B |
B |
-.112 |
-.17 |
-.236 |
|
Sim06 |
-.034 |
-.063 |
-.209 |
-.015 |
-.029 |
-.924 |
-.12 |
-.189 |
-.283 |
-.085 |
-.145 |
-.281 |
|
Sim06:pooled |
-.046 |
-.083 |
-.34 |
-.055 |
-.1 |
-.33 |
-.09 |
-.154 |
-.32 |
E |
E |
E |
|
AEO06 |
-.09 |
E |
-.24 |
-.12 |
E |
-.17 |
-.13 |
E |
-.28 |
-.11 |
E |
-.24 |
|
RSTEM06 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
E |
-.055 |
E |
E |
E |
E |
|
Sim07 |
-.042 |
-.074 |
-.174 |
-.02A |
-.039 |
-4.758 |
-.127 |
-.193 |
-.264 |
F |
F |
F |
Appendix: Regression Results
SIM 1998
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................: Electricity..................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
20.95588 -.008213 -.036006 -.963964
Variable# 2
120.0041 .046867 1.176614 6.389364
Variable# 3
4.714939 .143188 .141239 1.06441
Constant
-1.347228
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.780017 .007498 .999443 1.16711717389579
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.529692 -.027884 -.276989 -15.706174
Variable# 2
120.0041 -.003266 -.517062 -14.19813
Variable# 3
.7632976 .099365 .100059 1.704587
Constant
1.284048
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.7580014 .001097 .999106 1.11032771322456
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Natural Gas................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.433125 -.139805 -.132855 -5.762761
Variable# 2
120.0041 .017637 .370191 6.67501
Variable# 3
5.684838 .339615 .337684 3.470731
Constant
2.429755
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.717346 .009321 .996887 1.51426819203949
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
12.08812 -.310829 -.299508 -7.505819
Variable# 2
120.0041 .082405 .788275 8.224621
Variable# 3
12.44635 -.039917 -.039603 -.312198
Constant
6.910264
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
12.54504 .02418 .997699 .961615205828927
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
18.62128 -.008538 -.037944 -6.447781
Variable# 2
83.89153 .021789 .436252 34.627161
Variable# 3
4.148534 .65065 .644204 63.43241
Constant
-.178126
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.190042 .00125 .999963 2.862458852154
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.636477 .000097 .001351 .27353
Variable# 2
83.89153 -.000103 -.021353 -2.310316
Variable# 3
.4058964
1.043431
1.046585 84.135077
Constant
-.010758
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.4046733 .000773 .999237 -23.0250282056596
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Natural Gas ...............
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill. sq. ft.): Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
4.695888 -.054928 -.068504 -4.70247
Variable# 2
83.89153 -.00904 -.201415 -5.738788
Variable# 3
3.749291
1.142393
1.137546 25.935908
Constant .498417
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
3.765265 .004894 .996664 -7.02281713286468
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1996
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Commercial.....................:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
11.44349 -.06127 -.080432 -34.591934
Variable# 2
83.89153 .076231 .733622 56.726758
Variable# 3
8.65972 .218384 .216944 17.450273
Constant
1.132071
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
8.717208 .001539 .999972 1.27940062639455
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo98b.ran
hwop98.ran
lwop98.ran
SIM 1999
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households (millions): Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity
t-statistic
Variable# 1
21.80419 -.040977 -.187024 -2.572604
Variable# 2
120.6431 .013771 .347765 4.311752
Variable# 3
4.712081 .673767 .664569 8.406119
Constant
.834546
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.777297 .010409 .99897 3.06529382373947
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions given
below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.707847 -.020627 -.221248 -5.985797
Variable# 2
120.6431 -.00261 -.438181 -5.039129
Variable# 3
.7275242 .526672 .533209 6.368907
Constant
.809306
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.7186045 .001918 .998857 2.11269986140689
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Natural Gas................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.920345 -.071294 -.074859 -1.958997
Variable# 2
120.6431 .005927 .126818 1.893172
Variable# 3
5.598494 .769234 .763787 8.74495
Constant
1.038903
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.638422 .014466 .995241 4.33339400084934
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
12.73754 -.295876 -.306132 -8.462724
Variable# 2
120.6431 .052171 .511264 9.910442
Variable# 3
12.21467 .234222 .232393 2.924699
Constant
6.924531
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
12.31082 .017896 .998707 1.30586148988349
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption
(Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
18.71884 -.033842 -.144421 -6.839422
Variable# 2
70.39127 .022265 .357303 13.533609
Variable# 3
4.335765 .664848 .657179 33.772489
Constant
.569957
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.38636 .003235 .999836 2.98372081921039
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Commercial.....................: Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.): Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.48976 -.000469 -.007375 -.250741
Variable# 2
70.39127 .00011 .022179 .802064
Variable# 3
.3510037
1.018307
1.023827 29.508504
Constant
-.013487
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.3491113 .00204 .998581 -54.6239143497021
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Natural Gas ...............
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.138494 -.020172 -.026748 -.597943
Variable# 2
70.39127 -.004802 -.087225 -1.004467
Variable# 3
3.854832
1.005444
1.000143 12.686419
Constant
.44112
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
3.875265 .007949 .994726 -183.688464364438
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1997
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Commercial.....................:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
11.80873 -.159523 -.210698 -15.00283
Variable# 2
70.39127 .059885 .471488 17.478109
Variable# 3
8.870234 .457687 .454086 17.033554
Constant
2.549174
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
8.940581 .005632 .999756 1.84395358400038
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo99b.ran
hwop99.ran
lwop99.ran
SIM 2000
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
21.58276 -.026535 -.118286 -2.981664
Variable# 2
119.6886 .047768 1.180857 5.083033
Variable# 3
4.780196 .129272 .127631 .756917
Constant
-.920893
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.841639 .007906 .999264 1.14846427357338
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.716734 -.010001 -.107987 -3.735057
Variable# 2
119.6886 -.001276 -.213696 -2.505504
Variable# 3
.7240198 .779419 .789614 11.834602
Constant
.380255
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.714672 .001485 .999323 4.53348203154397
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................: Natural Gas................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
6.482791 -.027527 -.032183 -1.668942
Variable# 2
119.6886 .021819 .470968 4.204596
Variable# 3
5.503479 .422119 .418963 2.997868
Constant
.788775
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.544932 .009866 .99761 1.73046007742078
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
13.05115 -.224213 -.241384 -3.467812
Variable# 2
119.6886 .058033 .572962 3.547747
Variable# 3
12.03003 .32489 .322405 1.698318
Constant 4.194676
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
12.12276 .02141 .997764 1.48124009420687
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
18.55321 -.022599 -.09446 -11.81492
Variable# 2
71.5889 .026545 .428123 15.886424
Variable# 3
4.396117 .614967 .609061 34.861497
Constant
.254235
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 4.438745 .003176 .999771 2.59717998197557
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and Source: Commercial.....................: Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.525886 -.002556 -.037053 -2.599771
Variable# 2
71.5889 -.000219 -.041129 -2.179833
Variable# 3
.3817065 .990986 .992334 45.443368
Constant
.032724
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.3811878 .001352 .998958 110.938540048813
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Natural Gas ...............
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.485376 -.000933 -.001411 -.160463
Variable# 2
71.5889 .015287 .301785 9.058056
Variable# 3
3.605408 .642786 .639074 19.377416
Constant
.219584
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
3.626352 .004512 .998387 2.79944235108366
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion
Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1998
Dollars per Million Btu)
Sector and
Source: Commercial.....................:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
12.08021 -.095032 -.129394 -34.939342
Variable# 2
71.5889 .049367 .398338 33.825154
Variable# 3
8.807958 .567612 .563502 55.473332
Constant
1.486568
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
8.872193 .003172 .999908 2.31273763379187
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2k.ran
hwop2k.ran
lwop2k.ran
SIM 2001
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
22.06596 -.018997 -.081454 -1.878397
Variable# 2
120.2273 .016571 .387132 3.058911
Variable# 3
5.058544 .767853 .754763 10.230525
Constant -.311041
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.146276 .011255 .999263 4.30761543332457
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.556284 -.004775 -.044854 -2.871274
Variable# 2
120.2273 .000503 .075178 2.265688
Variable# 3
.8134442 .929092 .939523 27.05713
Constant
.024255
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.8044129 .003056 .997518 14.1027810684267
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Natural Gas................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
6.533878 -.019772 -.022099 -1.712774
Variable# 2
120.2273 .017862 .367348 4.035864
Variable# 3
5.792097 .630585 .624775 6.338099
Constant .175237
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.845958 .010343 .998521 2.70698266177605
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
13.26874 -.226562 -.235303 -3.65491
Variable# 2
120.2273 .06974 .65629 3.632594
Variable# 3
12.64755 .432129 .42779 2.63076
Constant
1.931999
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
12.77583 .021611 .998837 1.76096331737314
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
18.11595 -.010733 -.038449 -12.50245
Variable# 2
77.29922 .013535 .206888 5.016288
Variable# 3
4.971498 .828491 .814475 36.895324
Constant .086403
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.057051 .002324 .999968 5.83059781119358
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Commercial:
Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.325486 -.002221 -.027098 -2.012247
Variable# 2
77.29922 -.000353 -.062514 -2.657299
Variable# 3
.4349398 1.02387 1.020239 68.902073
Constant
.03028
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.4364876 .002218 .999143 -41.893590280687
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Natural Gas ...............
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.516591 -.004777 -.006713 -.520508
Variable# 2
77.29922 -.002521 -.049644 -1.781186
Variable# 3
3.899467
1.015814
1.009107 26.134363
Constant .185474
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
3.925382 .007145 .997243 -63.2351081320349
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (1999
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial.....................:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per year, Unless otherwise noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
12.0439 -.046886 -.057421 -17.609788
Variable# 2
77.29922 .016661 .130959 6.968238
Variable# 3
9.719701 .847649 .837775 57.764389
Constant
.872167
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
9.834253 .005053 .999919 6.56379019501021
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2001.ran
hw2001.ran
lw2001.ran
SIM 2002
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000 Dollars
per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
22.37988 -.004601 -.020096 -.58543
Variable# 2
118.7187 .005793 .134219 1.15589
Variable# 3
5.051901 .934784 .921631 11.83505
Constant -.183206
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.123999 .010922 .999012 15.333660451423
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
8.130342 -.005817 -.060964 -3.604103
Variable# 2
118.7187 .000179 .027393 .746702
Variable# 3 .7837595 .898518 .907773 22.710218
Constant
.097591
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.7757692 .002572 .997945 9.85396424981771
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000 Dollars
per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Residential....................:
Natural Gas................
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
6.836926 -.052141 -.061443 -3.523338
Variable# 2
118.7187 .01344 .275011 5.335908
Variable# 3
5.764387 .695084 .690592 9.686584
Constant .556051
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.801879 .013403 .995349 3.27959175641816
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential....................:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 13.63488 -.06115 -.065698 -2.318254
Variable# 2
118.7187 .02053 .19205 2.740098
Variable# 3
12.59112 .850182 .843493 11.430225
Constant
.382703
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 12.69097 .025864 .997391 6.67476538199682
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Electricity..................
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
20.00858 -.014587 -.054912 -4.056096
Variable# 2
80.66354 .035461 .53816 3.845301
Variable# 3
5.202803 .618164 .605096 6.348971
Constant
-.469568
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.315162 .003862 .999949 2.61892540252883
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Distillate Fuel..........
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel..............
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.924942 -.003445 -.047536 -4.05724
Variable# 2
80.66354 .000084 .01578 1.083514
Variable# 3
.4280151 .953627 .950581 39.256325
Constant
.034856
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.4293868 .001545 .998409 21.5642723136308
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source:
Commercial.....................:
Natural Gas ...............
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas..................
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.645689 -.012344 -.016663 -2.415835
Variable# 2
80.66354 .007771 .149876 4.238905
Variable# 3
4.127263 .863678 .852298 22.313504
Constant .0606
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.182372 .004843 .999688 7.33557312832851
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2000
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial.....................:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace(bill.
sq. ft.):
Total......................
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy...........
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1 13.09364 -.052917 -.066927 -8.358418
Variable# 2
80.66354 .037582 .292822 7.579526
Variable# 3
10.18047 .756958 .744366 23.181707
Constant
.307872
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 10.35268 .004904 .999966 4.11451518667555
Data pooled for the years
2005 to 2020 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2002.ran
hw2002.ran
lw2002.ran
SIM 2003
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
22.74567 -.015692 -.065799 -.745753
Variable# 2
126.0266 .003696 .085869 .562606
Variable# 3
5.355868 .95459 .942519 9.024617
Constant
.202936
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.424463 .012138 .998603 22.0215811495266
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
8.642146 -.013196 -.134757 -4.822299
Variable# 2
126.0266 -.001137 -.16932 -3.383772
Variable# 3
.8528451 .680466 .685745 9.349976
Constant
.523281
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.8462791 .00189 .998679 3.12955741798995
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.677718 -.10314 -.131874 -4.299907
Variable# 2
126.0266 .008643 .181396 3.493068
Variable# 3
5.955038 .886612 .879263 16.439654
Constant
.427638
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
6.004814 .012549 .997488 8.81927540833245
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
14.35213 -.079905 -.086667 -2.204266
Variable# 2
126.0266 .020564 .195855 2.326246
Variable# 3
13.12178 .852455 .845337 11.004657
Constant
.601733
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
13.23226 .028354 .997258 6.77759327662747
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion
Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
20.52562 -.011978 -.041628 -3.582279
Variable# 2
91.41891 .007004 .108414 2.034158
Variable# 3
5.784889 .946289 .926874 26.189328
Constant
.037444
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.906064 .003075 .999973 18.6181601534137
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
6.387117 -.003843 -.049927 -3.832847
Variable# 2
91.41891 .000155 .028822 1.784021
Variable# 3
.4895346 .978561 .974379 47.761476
Constant
.022972
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.4916354 .001607 .999197 46.6439666029199
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Commercial: Natural Gas 3/
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
6.660522 -.040356 -.064691 -2.484945
Variable# 2
91.41891 .003063 .067392 2.225908
Variable# 3
4.10543 .976128 .964475 28.235647
Constant
.136381
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
4.155031 .008168 .998992 41.8900804289544
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions given
below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2001
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
14.19268 -.066711 -.086404 -7.933514
Variable# 2
91.41891 .047226 .393995 9.492378
Variable# 3
10.78319 .705383 .694138 21.37572
Constant
-.018943
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
10.95788 .006205 .999948 3.39423726397323
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2003.1105c.ran
hw2003.1105c.ran
lw2003.1105c.ran
SIM 2004
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion
Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
23.51095 -.023956 -.103927 -3.398875
Variable# 2
129.0124 .029568 .703881 4.040232
Variable# 3
5.346181 .522888 .51582 4.422703
Constant
-.627428
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.419438 .009832 .999223 2.095943929308
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
8.24441 -.008841 -.083955 -3.639155
Variable# 2
129.0124 -.001347 -.200163 -3.628075
Variable# 3
.876401 .781464 .788855 12.106694
Constant
.429982
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.8681893 .001724 .999136 4.57590511403156
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Quadrillion
Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source: Residential: Natural Gas
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable
Mean Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
8.11161 -.087804 -.119099 -7.175445
Variable# 2
129.0124 .022533 .486112 7.131728
Variable# 3
5.939222 .396011 .393299 4.619589
Constant
1.433377
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.980179 .012291 .996088 1.65565929180829
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
14.82582 -.188492 -.208752 -7.125022
Variable# 2
129.0124 .069172 .666623 6.934464
Variable# 3
13.27687 .344482 .341649 3.645305
Constant
2.683814
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
13.38696 .022193 .998307 1.52551112250159
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
20.83341 -.01342 -.047 -4.472095
Variable# 2
92.87354 .0448 .699452 4.600791
Variable# 3
5.828291 .55835 .547061 5.792464
Constant
-1.186811
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.948566 .005931 .999894 2.26423638627873
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
5.847913 -.004418 -.039073 -7.567993
Variable# 2
92.87354 .000131 .0184 2.20219
Variable# 3
.655867 .988937 .980913 117.879287
Constant .026291
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.6612324 .001007 .99987 90.3913947392205
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.155451 -.01679 -.031134 -1.814278
Variable# 2
92.87354 -.001089 -.02621 -.562377
Variable# 3
3.817539
1.054199 1.04293 17.478021
Constant
.05562
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
3.858786 .012232 .996006 -18.4505249174339
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2002
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
14.53458 -.096924 -.128464 -7.901317
Variable# 2
92.87354 .085144 .721098 7.469882
Variable# 3
10.79853 .432373 .425767 5.638684
Constant -.201783
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
10.96608 .010767 .999819 1.76172028462353
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2004.1017e.ran
hw2004.1017b.ran
lw2004.1017b.ran
SIM 2005
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
23.68877 -.052139 -.220706 -6.760593
Variable# 2
132.3753 .05323 1.259134 7.159108
Variable# 3
5.518173 .113159 .111582 .900728
Constant
-.839484
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.596174 .00735 .999603 1.12759784448396
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
8.848448 -.004285 -.045663 -2.776468
Variable# 2
132.3753 -.000768 -.122438 -5.19776
Variable# 3
.8387908 .956133 .96587 30.978624
Constant .167919
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.8303348 .002414 .99869 22.7961793603392
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
8.357146 -.08092 -.113273 -4.123961
Variable# 2
132.3753 .015693 .347956 7.672975
Variable# 3 5.933815 .46417 .461342 10.253798
Constant
1.814785
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
5.970189 .010554 .994363 1.86626355373906
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential:
# 2) Table #4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Households
(millions): Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Residential: Delivered Energy
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
15.23075 -.17981 -.202845 -7.46033
Variable# 2
132.3753 .049467 .48501 7.464195
Variable# 3
13.39005 .529137 .524782 8.853291
Constant
2.606441
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
13.50118 .022216 .997987 2.12375998963605
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Electricity
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
21.38879 -.024277 -.086415 -19.830526
Variable# 2
92.4819 .055359 .852024 14.226833
Variable# 3
5.86759 .420898 .411001 9.747988
Constant
-1.06123
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable 6.008877 .002046 .999991 1.72681151161626
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Distillate Fuel
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
6.857437 -.003577 -.036482 -6.019866
Variable# 2
92.4819 .000176 .024208 2.031103
Variable# 3
.6628673 .991352 .977354 83.165146
Constant
.023479
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
.6723611 .00096 .999812 115.63367252544
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003
Dollars per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Natural Gas
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic
Variable# 1
7.411898 -.052953 -.102625 -3.073019
Variable# 2
92.4819 .002731 .066041 1.870836
Variable# 3
3.776856 1.00209 .989625 19.035342
Constant
.179591
Endogenous
Mean SER R-sq LR-Multiplier
Variable
3.824427 .008071 .998641 -478.468899521548
Data pooled for the years
2010 to 2025 for the solutions
given below:
aeo2005.1020a.ran
hw2005.1020a.ran
lw2005.1020a.ran
Endogenous Variable:
Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy
Exogenous Variables:
# 1) Table #3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source (2003 Dollars
per Million Btu, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial:
# 2) Table #5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and
Consumption (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Key Indicators
and Consumption: Total Floorspace
(billion squar: Total
# 3) Lagged Table #2 Energy Consumption by Sector and
Source (Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and
Source: Commercial: Delivered Energy
Exogenous
Variable
Mean
Coefficient
Elasticity t-statistic